The world economy in the event of a disaster will not last more than a week

Expert Group argues that the global economy can withstand large-scale destabilization due to natural disasters or acts of war only for a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to cope with the effects of an emergency. Events such as the volcanic ash cloud in 2010, which prevented air travel in Europe, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand in the same year, showed that key sectors and businesses could be adversely affected if disruption in the production or supply continue over a week. "One week is the maximum term, which will make the economy, working on the principle of" just in time said in a report of the London Institute of International Affairs Chatham House. The current fragile state of the global economy causes it especially vulnerable to unexpected shocks. According to the expert group, and 30% of the gross domestic product of developed countries may suffer directly as a result of crisis situations, particularly in the manufacturing and tourism sectors. It is estimated that the SARS outbreak in Asia in 2003 was worth commercial companies about 60 billion, or about 2% of GDP East Asia, the report said. According to the World Bank, after the tsunami in Japan and the nuclear crisis in March 2010, the volume of global industrial production declined in the following month by 1. 1%. A cloud of volcanic ash in 2010 cost the European Union 5-10 billion euros and put some airlines and travel companies to the brink of bankruptcy. "I would like to think that we can learn from our experience and in the future become more resistant, but it will not happen unless governments and commercial companies have not prepared better and do not arrange alternative delivery channels, which will be available in the event of disasters" said Alyson Warhurst (Alyson Warhurst), head of the British consultancy Maplecroft. "BE PREPARED" Costs can rise rapidly if the crossings or in the main production centers of outages will last several days, which could jeopardize the food and water supply as well as energy and communication networks. In the case of a prolonged power failure, some businesses will be forced to cut investment or jobs, or even to consider closing, leading to a permanent decline in the pace of development. In general, governments and commercial companies well prepared for and able to manage a powerful, unpredictable disasters, as their plans of action in an emergency is rarely taken into account worst-case scenario. "Insurance funds and business planning for emergencies often involves a return to pre-crisis status quo. However, this approach may not be entirely adequate in the world of complex economic and social risks, which can not return to the normal course of operations after the crisis said Bernice Lee (Bernice Lee), lead author of the report. "In an interdependent world, many industries, especially the expensive production may need to review their business model" just in time she added. Climate change and a lack of fresh water are additional risk factors that impose further limitations on infrastructure and resources. In recent years, experts have warned the government that the government does not properly prepared to meet the challenges associated with the effects of national crisis. The UK government in 2007, has been criticized for its lack of preparedness for flooding, which cost the economy 3. 2 billion pounds. The Expert Group recommended various ways to improve measures for governments and private companies to overcome the consequences of extreme situations. They emphasized the importance of social network resources as useful purpose in the exchange of information in case of crisis. During the civil unrest in London in 2010, social networks such as Twitter proved invaluable means by which many people were able to track the movements of the rebels in the capital of the UK and to take the necessary precautions.